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The short answer: US data centers are growing 7 to 14 times faster than the grid as a whole: about 13% to 27% a year to 2028 (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory) against about 2% for all US electricity (EIA). Their share of US electricity rises from 4.4% in 2023 to 6.7% to 12% in 2028.
Educational only, not financial advice. Every figure carries its source, listed at the end. The growth rates are our own calculation from sourced inputs, shown below. The snapshot table and the chart are refreshed about every six hours.
Latest market snapshot
| Latest snapshot | Nvidia (NVDA) | US utilities (XLU) |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $239.24 per share | $41.16 per share |
| 30-day return | +3.9% | -4.5% |
| 1-year return | +28.9% | -8.3% |
| 5-year return | +835.7% | +23.0% |
| Volatility (1 year, annualized) | 37.6% | 15.5% |
| Distance from highest close on record | +0.0% | -13.8% |
| $10,000 invested five years ago | $93,574 | $12,303 |
A snapshot, not a live quote: Yahoo Finance daily prices, each asset's latest bar dated (UTC) Nvidia (NVDA) 6 Oct 2026, US utilities (XLU) 6 Oct 2026. Refreshed about every six hours and last computed on 6 Oct 2026 at 20:25 UTC. Each price is the latest daily bar and each return runs to it. Price changes only, in US dollars, without dividends or fees. Futures are continuous front-month contracts, so a contract roll can show as a small step. Volatility is the standard deviation of daily moves over the past year, annualized. The highest close is from monthly history, not the intraday record. Nvidia (NVDA): Nvidia stock, a proxy for AI compute: it is a company, not a measure of AI electricity use. US utilities (XLU): Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF, a proxy for US electric and gas utilities: it holds companies, not electricity prices. Not financial advice.
Nvidia stands in for AI compute and the Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLU) for US power companies. They show how markets have priced the two sides of this story, not electricity use itself.
The numbers
| Metric | US data centers | All US electricity |
|---|---|---|
| Use | 176 TWh in 2023 (LBNL) | 4,135 billion kWh expected in 2026 (EIA, September 2026) |
| Outlook | 325 to 580 TWh by 2028 (LBNL) | 4,211 billion kWh in 2027 (EIA) |
| Growth a year | About 13% to 27% to 2028 (our calculation) | About 2% in 2026 and 2027 (EIA) |
| Share of US electricity | 4.4% in 2023; 6.7% to 12% in 2028 (LBNL) | 100% |
| Share of the growth | Commercial sector, which includes data centers: 63% of the 2026 increase and 56% of 2027's (EIA) | Record consumption, "driven by data center development" (EIA) |
| Global view (IEA) | 45% of the world's data center electricity in 2024; nearly half of the growth to 2030 | By 2030, more than US production of aluminum, steel, cement and chemicals combined |
| Constraint | Texas has paused connecting new data centers for a regulatory audit (EIA) | Grid connections can set the pace as much as demand |
| How the power is expected to come | Natural gas adds about 175 TWh for data centers by 2035 and nuclear about the same (IEA). See Nuclear vs Natural Gas. | |
Sources and dates are listed at the end. LBNL's figures cover data centers specifically and the EIA's cover all consumers, and they were prepared in different years, so the comparison is of scale and direction, not a precise ratio.
Growth and share
How we get 13% to 27%. LBNL estimated 176 TWh in 2023 and 325 to 580 TWh in 2028. Growth of 325 over 176 across five years is 13.1% a year, and 580 over 176 is 26.9% a year. The EIA's overall figure is the rise from 4,135 to 4,211 billion kWh, 1.8%, which the EIA describes as almost 2%.
How big is the increase?
| Step | Calculation | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Data center increase, 2023 to 2028 | 325 to 580 TWh minus 176 TWh | +149 to +404 TWh |
| 2. Per year, spread evenly over five years | Divide by 5 | about 30 to 81 TWh a year |
| 3. The EIA's expected rise in all US demand, 2026 to 2027 | 4,211 minus 4,135 billion kWh | 76 TWh |
| 4. Data center increase as a share of that rise | 30 to 81 divided by 76 | about 40% to more than 100% |
This is a comparison of scale, not a forecast for 2027: the periods differ, and electricity use elsewhere in the economy also moves. It says data centers are a very large part of the growth the grid has to serve, which matches the EIA's own statement that the commercial sector accounts for 56% to 63% of the increase.
$10,000 invested five years ago
$10,000 invested five years ago would be worth: Nvidia (NVDA): $93,574; US utilities (XLU): $12,303. Price changes only, without dividends or fees.
Prices only, without dividends or fees. Utilities pay meaningful dividends, so the price-only line understates what a holder of the utilities fund earned. Nvidia is one company, and the utilities fund is a basket of US power and gas companies.
What the numbers tell us
- Data centers are the fast lane of US electricity. 13% to 27% a year against about 2% for the whole grid, which is 7 to 14 times faster.
- The increase is large next to the whole grid. At 30 to 81 TWh a year, data center growth alone is comparable to the 76 TWh the EIA expects all US demand to rise in 2027.
- The EIA agrees on direction. The commercial sector, which includes data centers, is 63% of the 2026 increase and 56% of 2027's.
- The range is the story. LBNL's 2028 range spans 255 TWh, more than the whole 2023 total, because chip efficiency, AI adoption and cooling are unknown.
- Connections may set the pace. Texas paused new data center connections for an audit, which shows that grid access and permits can matter as much as demand.
Bottom line
US data centers are the fastest-growing large user of electricity: 4.4% of the total in 2023, 6.7% to 12% by 2028, growing 7 to 14 times faster than the grid overall. Their yearly increase is of the same order as the whole country's expected rise in demand, which is why the EIA now names data center development as the driver of record consumption. The honest caveat is the range: LBNL's 2028 estimate spans 255 TWh, and grid connections, not demand, may set the pace. The snapshot table shows how markets have priced Nvidia and the utilities that supply the power, which is history, not a forecast.
For where the power comes from, see Nuclear vs Natural Gas, and for the comparison with Bitcoin, AI vs Bitcoin Electricity.
Common questions
How fast is US data center electricity demand growing?
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory estimated 176 terawatt-hours in 2023 and a range of 325 to 580 terawatt-hours by 2028. That is growth of about 13% to 27% a year, our calculation from the two ends of its range. It is several times faster than overall US electricity demand, which the EIA expects to grow by about 2% a year in 2026 and 2027.
How much of US electricity do data centers use?
About 4.4% in 2023, according to Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. It expects 6.7% to 12% by 2028, depending on how fast AI demand grows and how fast the rest of the economy's use of electricity grows. The wide range reflects real uncertainty about chip efficiency, AI adoption and cooling.
How fast is overall US electricity demand growing?
The EIA's September 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook expects US electricity consumption of 4,135 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026, an increase of almost 2% over 2025, and 4,211 billion in 2027, nearly 2% more. It says consumption reaches record levels driven by data center development.
Will data centers drive US electricity demand growth?
On the EIA's forecast they are the largest single driver. The commercial sector, which includes data centers, is expected to grow 3.3% in 2026 and 2.7% in 2027 and to account for 63% and 56% of the increase in US electricity sales in those years. The EIA also notes that Texas has paused connecting new data centers to the grid for a regulatory audit, so connections can limit the pace as much as demand.
What does the IEA expect for US data centers by 2030?
The IEA says the United States accounted for 45% of global data center electricity use in 2024 and will account for nearly half of the growth to 2030. By 2030 it expects US data centers to consume more electricity than the production of aluminum, steel, cement, chemicals and all other energy-intensive goods in the country combined.
Why do estimates for 2028 vary so much?
Because the answer depends on things nobody knows yet: how many AI chips are shipped, how efficient the next generations are, how data centers are cooled, and how fast the rest of the economy uses more electricity. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory's 2028 range of 325 to 580 terawatt-hours spans a difference of about 255 terawatt-hours, more than the whole 2023 total.
Sources
Structural figures last checked on 5 October 2026.
- US data center electricity (176 TWh in 2023, 4.4%; 325 to 580 TWh by 2028, 6.7% to 12%): Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report (19 December 2024).
- US electricity consumption outlook (4,135 billion kWh in 2026, 4,211 in 2027), commercial sector growth and share of the increase, Texas connection pause: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook (September 2026).
- Global and US data center electricity (45% US share in 2024, nearly half of growth to 2030, more than energy-intensive goods production combined by 2030; gas about 175 TWh and nuclear about the same to 2035): IEA, Energy and AI.
- Prices, returns, volatility and the chart: computed from Yahoo Finance daily prices (a snapshot refreshed about every six hours), as noted under the snapshot table. Nvidia and the utilities ETF (XLU) are proxies.
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