Trading days, 31 Aug to 17 Sep. Higher is calmer: 70 confident, 50 balanced, 30 cautious.
Over these 14 trading days the mood ranged from 31
(cautious) to 73
(confident), and today sits at
37 (cautious).
Opened about where it closed, overnight.
Each point is where a trading day settled. A single number from 0 to 100:
40% how many of the world's markets are up,
30% the Fear and Greed index,
20% the VIX inverted so calm scores high, and
10% Bitcoin. It is arithmetic, not an opinion, so you can compare
one day with the next. The number barely moves during a session, which is why this
is a daily line rather than an hourly one.
How this is worked out
The read on the tape
US open
·
Futures are pointing to a sharp reopen — S&P 500 futures up 1.22%, Nasdaq 100 futures up 1.62% — a stark reversal from where cash last closed, with the Dow's -1.21% finish now set against futures up over 600 points. Europe is trading firmly higher across the board, DAX up 1.28% and CAC up 1.20%, while Asia's last close was mixed and unremarkable — Nikkei up 0.33%, Hang Seng down 0.26%. The move higher in equity futures is coming with the 10-year yield up 3bps to 5.00% and the 2-year up 2bps to 4.67%, curve flattening slightly to +27bps — richly priced growth exposure in the Nasdaq typically doesn't rally through higher long yields, so that pairing is worth noting. Gold is up 0.61% to 4414 even as the dollar index eases 0.15%, a conventional inverse pairing, while crude is down 2.26% to 100.12, the sharpest move on the board. With VIX at 15.45, below its 50-day average of 16.19, and the Fear & Greed Index still reading 26 (fear), the options market isn't pricing the stress the sentiment gauge suggests — the futures markup looks larger than the volatility backdrop would imply.
Written by AI from the live market snapshot at that session open. Informational only, not financial advice.
Markets never really close. While one part of the world sleeps, another is trading.
This page follows that daily relay in three short briefs: Tokyo opens,
then London, then New York.
Each brief is written in everyday words. If a market term appears, it is explained in the
same sentence. You get what moved, why it moved, and what is coming next, then the live
numbers underneath so you can check any of it yourself on the
Global Markets Dashboard.
This page explains the news. It is not financial advice and it never says what
to buy or sell.
US stocks fall as bonds rise and oil slides ahead of jobs data
US shares dropped at the close, with the S&P 500 down 0.45% and the Dow falling 1.21%. Treasury yields jumped sharply, particularly the 10-year rising to 5.00%, while crude oil fell 2.26%. Asia and Europe showed mixed moves, with Taiwan and India gaining ground but Australia and China declining.
What moved
In the US, the Dow Jones fell most heavily at minus 1.21% while the Nasdaq held relatively steady at minus 0.01%. Across the Americas, Mexico slid 1.54% and Brazil dropped 0.79%. Europe was broadly weak, with Spain down 0.44% and the UK down 0.71%. Asia split: Taiwan and India rose 1.62% and 1.04% respectively, but Australia fell 1.38% and China dropped 1.13%. US Treasury yields rose significantly, with the 10-year jumping 60 basis points to 5.00% and the 2-year up 43 basis points to 4.67%. Oil fell sharply to 100.12 a barrel, down 2.26%.
Why it matters
Rising Treasury yields, which represent borrowing costs across the economy, typically weigh on stocks because they make bonds more attractive and make corporate debt more expensive. The sharp move upward suggests markets are recalibrating to recent monetary policy decisions. Energy stocks fell the most, down 2.88%, as crude oil tumbled. Falling crude often signals concerns about global economic growth, which can ripple across markets and hit exporters like Australia and emerging economies.
What to watch next
A deluge of US jobs data arrives this morning: non-farm payrolls, jobless claims, and job openings all release at 08:30 ET, along with inflation figures including the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index. These numbers will heavily influence whether the US Federal Reserve continues cutting interest rates, which in turn affects Treasury yields and market direction globally. Market participants are watching with caution, as the Fear and Greed Index sits at 26, indicating fear is dominant.
Europe open · London
Wall Street closes lower as Treasury yields jump, but Asia mixed ahead of major US jobs data
US markets fell yesterday after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, with the S&P 500 down 0.45% and the Dow down 1.21%. The 10-year Treasury yield, which determines long-term borrowing costs, jumped 0.60% to 5.00%. Asia is mixed this morning, with Taiwan up 1.62% but China down 1.13%, while Europe is set to open with modest declines across most major indices.
What moved
The S&P 500 fell 0.45% and the Dow Jones fell 1.21%, while the Nasdaq barely moved at 0.01% down. Energy stocks were hardest hit, dropping 2.88%, and financials fell 1.62% as higher interest rates pressure bank profits. Across Asia this morning, Taiwan rose 1.62% and Japan edged up 0.09%, but Australia fell 1.38%, Hong Kong dropped 0.85%, and China fell 1.13%. In Europe, all major indices are showing small declines, ranging from Germany at 0.24% down to Spain at 0.44% down. Bitcoin is holding steady with a 0.33% gain at 76,394, while crude oil fell 1.57% to 100.82 a barrel.
Why it matters
The Federal Reserve's rate increase makes borrowing more expensive for businesses and consumers, which typically weighs on stock prices. Higher Treasury yields, meaning bonds pay more interest, make stocks less attractive by comparison since investors can earn safer returns elsewhere. The mood reflects caution, with the Fear and Greed Index at 26 out of 100 showing fear dominates sentiment. The jump in yields compressed the gap between 2-year and 10-year Treasury rates, a shift that often signals economic uncertainty.
What to watch next
The US releases major economic data at 08:30 ET this morning, including weekly jobless claims, the monthly jobs report, and inflation readings through the Producer Price Index and Consumer Price Index. These figures will heavily influence whether markets expect more rate increases from the Federal Reserve in the coming months. The Bank of England is also in focus after hints it may resist following the Fed's rate-hike path despite rising inflation in the UK.
Asia open · Tokyo
US stocks close lower as Treasury yields jump; Asia opens mixed with Taiwan gaining
US markets fell overnight with the S&P 500 down 0.45% and the Dow down 1.21%, while US Treasury borrowing costs climbed sharply. Asia's opening shows Taiwan up 1.62% but China, Hong Kong and Australia all in the red. Bitcoin and Ethereum are gaining ground as crypto investors eye a potential regulatory shift.
What moved
The S&P 500 dropped 0.45% and the Nasdaq barely changed at minus 0.01%, while the Dow fell 1.54%. In Asia, Taiwan rose 1.62% and Japan edged up 0.09%, but China fell 1.13%, Hong Kong fell 0.85%, and Australia fell 1.38%. US Treasury yields jumped significantly, with the 10-year yield rising 0.60 percentage points to 5.00% and the 2-year climbing 0.43 points to 4.67%. Bitcoin gained 0.74% to $76,143 and Ethereum added 0.81% to $2,416.
Why it matters
Higher US Treasury yields signal that the cost of borrowing has climbed, which typically weighs on stock valuations, especially for growth companies. The bigger move was in financial stocks, which fell 1.93%, a sign that rising rates are pressuring banks and lending sectors. Consumer discretionary stocks fell 2.37%, suggesting people may pull back on non-essential spending when borrowing costs rise. Meanwhile, tech and semiconductors held up better, with semiconductors gaining 0.75%.
What to watch next
Several major US economic reports are due in the next trading session: non-farm payrolls, jobless claims, and consumer and producer price data. These figures will likely influence whether the Federal Reserve continues raising rates or pauses. Bitcoin and Ethereum are responding positively to news of potential regulatory clarity, including Deutsche Bank's plans for cryptocurrency custody and discussion of a CLARITY Act in Congress.
US close · New York
US stocks fell as the Fed raised rates for the first time in three years
American stock indices closed lower after the Federal Reserve increased its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, or 0.25 percentage points. The S&P 500 dropped 0.44 percent and the Dow Jones fell 1.19 percent. Crude oil slumped 3.66 percent, the biggest mover among major commodities.
What moved
The Dow Jones fell hardest among US indices, closing down 1.19 percent at 51473.79, while the S&P 500 lost 0.44 percent and the Nasdaq Composite barely moved, down 0.03 percent. Across the globe, Asian and European markets mostly declined: Australia dropped 1.44 percent, Taiwan climbed 1.49 percent against the broader trend, and European indices fell between 0.33 and 0.79 percent. Energy stocks sank 2.86 percent and financial stocks fell 1.58 percent, while semiconductor and artificial intelligence-focused stocks gained ground. The US dollar strengthened 0.64 percent, and the 10-year Treasury yield, the rate the US government pays to borrow for a decade, rose to 4.97 percent.
Why it matters
When central banks raise rates, borrowing becomes more expensive for businesses and individuals, which typically weighs on stock prices. The Fed's first increase since July 2023 signals concern about inflation and the economy's heat. Oil tumbled nearly 4 percent, suggesting markets are pricing in slower demand ahead. Treasury yields spiked because newly issued bonds now offer higher returns, making existing bonds less attractive and pushing their prices down. The dollar's strength reflects investor appetite for the safest currency when uncertainty rises, shown by the Fear and Greed Index at 26 out of 100, deep in fear territory.
What to watch next
Major employment data arrives tomorrow: job openings, jobless claims, non-farm payrolls, and consumer prices all release at 08:30 ET. These figures will shape expectations for whether the Fed will cut rates again soon, directly influencing stock and bond markets worldwide. Crude oil's sharp decline bears watching as it flows through energy companies and shipping costs globally.
02
World Markets Now
The main share index of each major market, in the order the trading day happens.
A share index tracks a basket of large companies, so it is a quick way to see whether
a whole market went up or down.
Asia-Pacific
Market
Level
Change
South Korea EWY
182.84
+4.16%
Australia EWA
29.10
+2.14%
Taiwan EWT
110.60
+2.03%
India INDA
48.02
+1.19%
Hong Kong EWH
22.52
+1.05%
Japan EWJ
97.82
+0.83%
China MCHI
52.71
+0.76%
Europe
Market
Level
Change
Spain EWP
61.52
+1.13%
United Kingdom EWU
47.92
+0.96%
Italy EWI
61.12
+0.87%
Germany EWG
42.70
+0.62%
France EWQ
44.32
+0.40%
Switzerland EWL
60.29
+0.40%
Americas
Market
Level
Change
Mexico EWW
74.29
+1.92%
United States SPY
762.26
+1.09%
Canada EWC
60.37
+0.85%
Brazil EWZ
37.72
+0.64%
03
How This Page Works
When it updates. Four times each weekday. Three at the moment a market
opens for business: 9:00 in Tokyo, 8:00 in London and
9:30 in New York. Then a fourth at 16:00 in New York,
the closing bell that ends the global trading day, and the one brief that reports a day
already finished rather than one about to start. These are each exchange's own local
times, so a brief arrives with the bell all year and moves with the clocks when daylight
saving starts or ends. At the weekend there is a single brief at 10:00 UTC, because share
markets are shut and only crypto and some currencies keep moving.
Who writes it. An AI model, Claude Haiku, writes each brief from a
snapshot of live market data taken at that moment. It is given real figures only, from the
same feeds behind the dashboard, and is instructed never to invent a number or an event.
No human edits the text before it appears.
The temperature is measured, not judged. The bar near the top is a single
score from 0 to 100 for each session, so you can watch the mood pass from Tokyo to London
to New York. It is a weighted average of four things: how many of the world's markets are
up (40%), the Fear and Greed index (30%), the VIX inverted so calm scores high (20%), and
Bitcoin's day change (10%). It is plain arithmetic rather than the AI's opinion, which is
the point: the same inputs always give the same number, so comparing one session with the
next means something.
The same page for everyone. Wherever you open this from, you see the same
briefs and the same numbers. Only the clock adapts: times are shown in your own time zone.
All three regions are always covered, because a story that begins in Tokyo usually ends in
New York.
Where the numbers come from. Index, currency, commodity, bond and crypto
feeds, listed with their update frequency on the data sources
page. For the week in context, see weekly market trends.
This page publishes a short brief at each of the three main market openings: Asia in Tokyo,
Europe in London, and the United States in New York. Each brief says what moved, by how
much, and why it matters. Below them you can see live index moves for every region, so you
can check the numbers yourself.
How often is Markets Today updated?
Four times every weekday. Three as each market opens: 9:00 in Tokyo, 8:00 in London and
9:30 in New York, each in its own local time. Then once more at 16:00 in New York, the
closing bell that ends the global trading day, which is the only brief written about a day
that has already happened rather than one about to start. At the weekend there is one brief
at 10:00 UTC covering crypto and currencies, which keep trading. Every brief is stamped
with the exact time it was published, shown in your own time zone.
Does the page show different content depending on where I am?
No. Everyone sees the same briefs and the same numbers. The only thing your browser changes
is how times are displayed, shown in your own time zone for convenience.
Who writes the market brief?
An AI model, Claude Haiku, writing from a live snapshot of market data. It only ever sees
real figures from the dashboard feeds and is instructed not to invent numbers or events.
It is a summary of what the data shows, not a human analyst's opinion.
What is "the read on the tape"?
It is the AI Mood narrative, the same short trader-voice read that appears on the live
dashboard, shown here directly under the market temperature. The temperature is
arithmetic and always gives the same number for the same inputs; the read is the
interpretation of it, written by AI from the live snapshot taken at that session open.
It is generated at the three session opens, which are three of the four slots the brief
publishes on, so at those three the read and the brief always describe the same session.
The fourth brief, written at the New York close, has no read of its own: rather than pair
it with an opinion formed hours earlier, the read is hidden if it has not refreshed in
twelve hours. Informational only, not financial advice.
How is the market temperature worked out?
It is a weighted average of four measurements, scored from 0 for nervous to 100 for
confident:
Breadth, 40%. The share of the world's tracked share indices that are
up on the day. The most direct answer to whether today is broadly good or broadly bad,
and it counts every region equally.
Fear and Greed, 30%. The well-known sentiment index, already scored
from 0 to 100.
The VIX, 20%. A measure of how much sudden movement traders expect.
Inverted here so calm scores high: 10 or below reads 100, 40 or above reads 0.
Bitcoin's day change, 10%. Crypto never closes, so it is the only live
signal at a weekend.
If a measurement is unavailable it is dropped and the rest are rescaled, so a weekend still
gives an honest reading rather than a gap. The number is worked out by arithmetic and is
not written by the AI: the same inputs always give the same result, which is what makes it
fair to compare one day against the next.
It is a daily reading rather than an hourly one, and the chart above reflects that. Most of
the breadth measurement comes from markets that have already closed by the time New York
opens, and the Fear and Greed index updates about once a day, so the figure barely moves
between one session and the next: over four weeks it shifted by a median of one and a half
points within a day. Between days it moves far more, a median of seventeen points from
where one day settles to where the next one opens, which is why the chart plots days and
the line above it reports the overnight change.
Where does the market data come from?
The same feeds that power the Global Markets Dashboard: indices,
currencies, commodities, government bond yields, crypto, sectors and the economic calendar.
Every source is listed on the data sources page.
Is this investment advice?
No. This page explains what happened and why. It never tells you what to buy or sell and
makes no predictions. For financial decisions, speak to a licensed adviser who knows your
circumstances.
